Republicans are facing a tough choice this primary season. Should they just face the music and rally behind their frontrunner Donald Trump, even though his odds of winning a general election are slim to none against either Democratic candidate? Or should they go with a more practical choice like Ted Cruz even though he’s the Zodiac Killer and a far right extremist with a face that defies science? Kasich who?
Well, this electoral map posted by the Washington Post shows that it doesn’t matter who Republicans begrudgingly elect to run in the general election — they’re bound to get their pants beat off them come November.
Chris Cillizza’s column The Fix at WaPo says that according to the states who have consistently voted blue in every election from 1992 until 2012, the Democratic nominee will have 242 electoral votes from 19 states. And iIn order to get to the majority, all the Democratic nominee has to do is flip Florida from red to blue and BAM! 271 votes. Winner, winner chicken dinner.
And flipping Florida at this point doesn’t look too complicated. In polling, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 13 points and Ted Cruz by nine. President Obama took the state to beat Mitt Romney in 2012, and Clinton beat her Democratic opponent Bernie Sanders there by a wide margin, which means this swing state looks like it could swing for Clinton in the general election.
While it’s not guaranteed traditionally blue states will vote blue in this election, the map shows the Democrats have an ostensibly less steep of a climb to the top than Republicans do.
To start, the GOP has fewer states that vote red consistently with only 13 states for a total of 102 electoral votes. That means after the primary election is decided, the Republicans have to flip 168 electoral votes in their favor. And with a candidate like Trump or Cruz their chances of doing so are considerably lower given their high unfavorability ratings.
And hysterically, Republicans are once again fooling themselves into thinking they can flip votes from Latinos and women, who classically overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. Mitt Romney and John McCain made the same mistakes, and they lost their elections to President Obama. Trump is the presumptive nominee (if the Republican party doesn’t pull anything out of their bag of tricks) but his unfavorability rating among Latinos is 79 percent, due to his extremely racist and xenophobic rhetoric. And without this voting bloc at least partially on his side, he has no chance in Florida or any other states with high Latino populations — which means Arizona and New Mexico could also turn blue this election.
Republicans simply can’t win while trying only to appeal to the white male vote any longer, and the sooner they realize and embrace it and come back from the far right to appeal to more women as well, they’ll lose election after election.
Nothing is in the bag quite yet, and you definitely need to seal the deal with your vote, but this map shows Democrats can relax a little knowing that the likelihood they’ll be saying “President Trump” come November is looking almost null and void.
Featured Image via Ramin Talaie/Getty Images