A new Monmouth poll of PA-18 shows Democrats having a commanding lead over Republican rival Rick Saccone, who President Trump just campaigned for over the weekend.
The Special Election will take place on Tuesday and the polls show Democrat Conor Lamb currently with a 6-point lead over Saccone.
What’s notable about the district, and the lead is that Republicans have held the district for 15 straight years. If Democrats win it will be a huge upset.
“This should be a shoo-in,” said analyst Gloria Borger of the congressional race. “This should be an easy win.”
Fellow CNN panelist Rachel Bade seconded that sentiment.
“This is a district that has been Republican-held for 15 years,” she said. “If they lose a district like this, they’re in big trouble in the midterm elections.”
Even though Trump campaigned for Saccone, it’s said he did it out of necessity for the party, even though he personally thinks he’s a losing candidate.
Republicans on Capitol Hill are even bracing for a loss, trying to downplay expectations given the numbers on the ground.
“I think they know they’re in trouble, and this is going to look really bad for the president and the party,” she said.
The other thing that can be gleaned from the poll is that Trump’s numbers themselves can even be on the decline, further showcasing voters frustrations with the president. When he ran in 2016, Trump took the district by more than 20 points.
“Voters are divided on the potential impact of tariffs. It doesn’t seem that the president’s gambit paid off in this race if that was his intent. But the poll was largely conducted before Trump’s rally Saturday night and we don’t have a clear picture of what impact that might hold. A Saccone victory is still well within the poll’s margin of error, especially if a Democratic surge does not materialize in the Pittsburgh suburbs,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.